Sunday, August 17, 2008

McCain pulls even in Ohio

Barack Obama 45
John McCain 45

John McCain has pulled even in Ohio, after trailing in PPP's June and July polls of the state. He and Barack Obama are each at 45%, with 10% of Ohio voters reporting as undecided.

Party unity is an issue for Obama in the Buckeye State. While McCain has an 89-7 lead with voters who identify as Republicans, Obama has a narrower 75-17 edge with Democrats. Delving deeper into the numbers, it appears that residual unhappiness from Hillary Clinton supporters could be the cause. The 25% of Democrats who currently either support McCain or are undecided are disproportionately middle aged, white, and female or in other words prototypical Clinton voters. Ohio is one state where some joint appearances of the former Democratic foes might do the nominee some good.

Obama is able to keep the race tied overall due to a 45-28 lead with independents voters. Beyond that the crosstabs come out as one might expect- Obama leads with women, voters under 45, and African Americans while McCain has the edge with men, older voters, and whites.

It appears Ohio will once again be among the most highly contested states this fall.

Full results here.

No comments:

Post a Comment