Obama's Current NC Tipping Point

Whether Barack Obama can win North Carolina or not will have a lot to do with what percentage of the electorate this fall is composed of African Americans. The most recent census estimate shows blacks at a little under 22% of the population, but in 2004 they made up just 18.5% of the state's voting population.

If blacks don't turn out at a higher rate relative to the rest of the population than they did in 2004, Obama has no chance. On the other hand, if they vote at a higher rate than the white population and push the black composition of the electorate up over 22% this year, Obama could even be favored in North Carolina.

Using our latest poll, here's how the contest in North Carolina would look weighting the African American vote to be anywhere from 18 to 23%:

Black % of Electorate	McCain	Obama
18	48	43
19	47	44
20	47	44
21	46	45
22	46	45
23	45	46

At this point anyway it looks like 23% could be the North Carolina tipping point.