Our new national survey pitting Barack Obama against Sarah Palin in a possible 2012 contest finds Obama leading Palin by 20 points. Obama beat John McCain by just 7 last fall, so it appears he would do 13 points better against Palin.
Palin's poor performance relative to McCain might not necessarily be uniformly spread across the 50 states, but just to get some idea of how many electoral votes Obama would get in a contest against Palin, let's look at the states McCain won by fewer than 13 points last fall:
-Missouri (McCain + .1) 11 EV's
-Montana (McCain + 2.3) 3 EV's
-Georgia (McCain +5.2) 15 EV's
-South Dakota (McCain +8.4) 3 EV's
-Arizona (McCain +8.5) 10 EV's
-North Dakota (McCain +8.6) 3 EV's
-South Carolina (McCain +9.0) 8 EV's
-Nebraska-1 (McCain +9.8) 1 EV
-Texas (McCain +11.8) 34 EV's
So Obama would win approximately 88 more electoral votes in a contest against Sarah Palin than he received against John McCain last fall. That would give him a 453-85 victory in the electoral college.
It's a long way until 2012, but it appears the Republicans nominating Palin would lead to the biggest landslide in a generation.
Full results here.
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