Our state by state polling though is finding that in states with a competitive 2010 race- defined as one where we've polled a Senate or Gubernatorial race in single digits since November- there's been a much larger decline in Obama's popularity. Across those eight states his approval has dropped by an average of 12 points.
The biggest decline in Obama's approval has been in Nevada where he won by 12 points in 2008 but where we now find him at a -8 spread. Harry Reid's troubles may have as much to do with Obama as they do with him. The other two states where Obama's seen the biggest decline have significant Hispanic populations as well- New Mexico where he's dropped by 18 points and Texas where he's dropped by 17 points.
If Obama's popularity has fallen at a faster rate in the 2010 battleground states it's obviously going to be harder for Democrats to win in them this fall.
Here's the full data:
| State | Obama 08 Margin | Obama Approval | Shift |
| | +12 | -8 | -20 |
| | +15 | -3 | -18 |
| | -11 | -28 | -17 |
| | +14 | E | -14 |
| | +25 | +12 | -13 |
| | E | -9 | -9 |
| | -16 | -24 | -8 |
| | -9 | -3 | +6 |
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