Dem interest not picking up enough...

One of the biggest hopes for Democrats heading toward election day has been that the party's voters will get more engaged as the election comes closer, helping to mitigate its losses. A PPP analysis of 9 states where we've polled in October and also conducted a survey in August or September finds that the likely electorate for this fall is trending more Democratic- but not nearly to the extent the party needs.

On average in those places we're looking at a likely voter pool that's about 1.5 points more Democratic than a month or two ago. That's certainly better than no progress but it's not enough to make the difference in a particularly large number of races.

In 2 of the 9 states Democrats have seen a game changing increase in engagement. We've seen a 7 point Democratic shift in the likely electorate in West Virginia since mid-September and that's a big part of why we had John Raese ahead then and have Joe Manchin ahead now. When Manchin was viewed as a shoo in there didn't seem to be much of a sense of urgency from Democrats about voting. When the race started being perceived as a toss up that changed quite a bit.

The other state where there's been a big rise in Democratic vote likelihood is Pennsylvania, where there's been a 5 point shift from mid-August. Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato may lose anyway but their races are now looking markedly more competitive than they did over the summer, thanks mostly to the Democratic awakening.

In a couple of other key states though Democrats aren't showing any increased interest and in some cases could even be sliding backward. The likely electorate in Illinois in August was Obama +9 and when we polled there last weekend it was still Obama +9. Usually for a Republican to win in a blue state like Illinois they would need a massive advantage with independents and to win over a fair number of Democrats. Mark Kirk and Bill Brady are doing neither of those things but still in a position to win because of what's likely to be a massive drop in Democratic turnout in the state.

Another place where the enthusiasm gap could cost Democrats dearly is Florida. In August we saw a McCain +3 electorate there, right around the time of the Senate primary, while we've now seen that slide to McCain +7 in a state that Obama won by 3 points. If Rick Scott wins it's not going to be because he won over 2008 Obama voters- because he's not doing that- but because those Democratic leaners stayed home in such large numbers that it allowed him to eak out a narrow victory.

Here's the data on how the electorate has shifted in these states over the last couple months:

State	Most Recent Poll	First Likely Vote Poll	Shift
California	Obama +20	Obama +21	R+1
Kentucky	McCain +16	McCain +13	R+3
West Virginia	McCain +16	McCain +23	D+7
Colorado	Obama +3	Even	D+3
Illinois	Obama +9	Obama +9	None
Pennsylvania	Obama +4	McCain + 1	D+5
Florida	McCain +7	McCain +3	R+4
North Carolina	McCain +4	McCain +9	D+5
Alaska	McCain +14	McCain +16	D+2
Average	McCain +2.2	McCain +3.9	D+1.6