Hickenlooper lead down to 3

Tom Tancredo continues to surge as Dan Maes' support completely collapses in the Colorado Governor's race and John Hickenlooper now leads the race by only a 47-44 margin with Maes getting 5%.

Hickenlooper's been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP's polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.

Hickenlooper remains by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with 51% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. He hasn't been able to translate that majority favorability to a majority of the vote because many of the Republicans who like him on a personal level are not willing to actually vote for him. Tancredo meanwhile has seen voters really warm up to him over the course of the campaign. In early August 50% of voters expressed unfavorable feelings toward him while only 27% rated him positively. Now he's on slightly positive ground with 45% saying they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one.

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He's pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Hickenlooper's getting 87% of Democrats to 10% for Tancredo and none for Maes. Tancredo has the 73-14 advantage with Republicans with 9% still going to Maes. His path to victory is dependent on that 9% continuing to decline. Tancredo also now has a 46-44 advantage with independents.

Hickenlooper remains the slight favorite but this race looks more and more like it could produce one of the most shocking outcomes in the country on election night.

Full results here