Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Sizing up the SC Runoff

Our polling suggests Gresham Barrett will pick up most of Henry McMaster and Andre Bauer's supporters in the South Carolina Republican Governor runoff. But he won't do it by nearly a wide enough margin to make the race competitive.

On our final primary poll McMaster supporters said they would go for Barrett 45-32 over Nikki Haley. Bauer's voters said their second choice would be Barrett over Haley by a 44-28 margin.

Those numbers suggest that when everyone makes up their minds Barrett will pick up about 60% of the also ran vote to 40% for Haley. That would create an overall runoff result of Haley around 60% and Barrett around 40%. The only way Haley's going to lose this thing- or that it's even going to be close- is if a new scandal breaks that can actually be proven.

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