Way too soon to bury Johan Santana

Johan Santana's velocity is down and he's not the pitcher he was a few years ago. But he's still pitched well this season, and the Post's Kevin Kernan has no business pointing to Santana's won-loss record to argue that he's no longer an ace:

[CC] Sabathia moved to 8-3. Florida's Josh Johnson upped his record to 8-2 with a 1.80 ERA. Those are ace numbers. If Santana (5-4) and the offense came through yesterday, the Mets would have produced an 8-1 road trip.

Santana has four games this year in which he has pitched at least seven innings and given up no earned runs - and only ended up with a no-decision. Think about that - four games, 29 innings (he went eight innings in one of the games) NO runs and NO wins. If Santana had won three of those games, he would have eight wins, just like Sabathia and Johnson.

Santana's 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are good numbers, but not quite ace material. But they compare favorably with the numbers so far for two-time defending Cy Young Tim Lincecum (3.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and Braves phenom Tommy Hanson (3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).

Santana's numbers are actually pretty good, with one big exception - strikeouts. Santana is striking out only 5.69 batters per nine innings, down from 7.9 in each of his first two seasons in New York, and way down from 9.7 in his last season in Minnesota. Lincecum's 2010 K/9 is 10.29, Hanson's is 9.36 and Sabathia's is 7.36.

In April, Santana struck out 28 in 30 1/3 innings - an ace pace. In May, he struck out 26 in 41 innings, a more mixed result. But in June, Santana has only struck out 8 in 26 2/3 innings, while also walking 12.

Santana had a great month in April but has been mediocre in June, for overall good results. It's way too early to dismiss him for the year, much less for his career.

Will Santana end up being worth his contract? Probably not. But most long-term pitching contracts work out a lot worse than Santana's has so far. In fact, you don't have to look any farther than the two other starting pitchers the Mets gave big contracts to in the last few years in the last few years - Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez.

Something to think about when debating over whether to mortgage the farm system to rent Cliff Lee.

Upon further review, Mets back in first place

Maybe the Mets have a matching runs program for Johan Santana. When he is unhittable, they don't score any runs for him. But with Santana more human over his last three starts, allowing nine earned runs in 20 innings and giving up a home run in each game, the Mets have stepped up their attack, helping Santana to win all three games.

Earlier in the year, Santana lost two games in which he gave up no earned runs. Tonight, Santana blew an early lead by allowing a bases-loaded walk and was out of the game after six innings and 120 pitches with the score tied. So this was a game that Santana would not expect to win. But he did, with the help of a rejuvenated Daniel Murphy and the umpires.

Fernando Martinez might have set a Citi Field record for quickest boos of a touted new arrival. But he deserved them for failing to run out a popup that the Washington catcher dropped.

The Mets nearly had another baserunning mishap when Sheffield was out at home after Murphy's hit was initially ruled a double. Had Sheffield stayed at third, the Mets would have had second and third with none out, and would have had a great chance to score. Instead, was one out and man on second before Murphy's double was changed to a home run.

The overly aggressive baserunning is resulting in more runs, but there also seems to be someone out at third or home almost every game, and that is bound to be bad in the long run.

But it is hard to find much to complain about on a night when a Met team missing three-fourths of its lineup core moves back into first place.

Yankees may have lost, but at least Johan Santana gave Kevin Youkilis the what-for

Yes, Squawker Jon, I know my Yankees didn't hold up their share of the Yankees-Mets alliance this weekend, and your team did. Sorry about that. But give me this - I had more faith in your Mets than you did. I predicted that your team would win last night, and thought they had a 50/50 chance to win the series. You, on the other hand, figured the Sox would sweep the Mets!

Too bad my Yankees prediction - that they would continue their winning streak Friday - didn't come true. And I kind of figured that early in last night - make that very early in last night. After Jimmy ("The Team to Beat") Rollins hit a homer off A.J. Burnett's very first pitch of the night, I didn't expect the evening to end well.

I do like Rollins an awful lot, though. In addition to his skills as a ballplayer, he's got a great personality, he's not afraid to speak his mind, and he loves to make predictions:

Rollins, who hit his 29th leadoff homer, envisioned leading off on Thursday.

"I kind of said it would nice to do, first time at Yankee Stadium, my first swing, you know, be a home run. I prayed on it. Prayers get answered," he said.

Unfortunately, his prediction, unlike mine, actually came true!

Did notice how Burnett hit Chase Utley and the homer, and then Brett Myers hit Derek Jeter. Aside from all the fans wearing Phillies red in the Stadium seats, what struck me was how intense the game was, even with two teams that don't have any sort of rivalry.

And it's a funny thing - it's not so enjoyable to see all those home runs when it's the other team hitting them! Everybody talks about right field being a homer haven, but what disturbs me more is how many balls get hit to center. How many balls got hit into the black in the old ballpark - maybe 25 in 30+ years? And how many got hit in the area in front of that? Not many. Seems like a lot this year.

Hmmm, maybe the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar is the problem. Wouldn't that be a kick in the head, if it turns out that building that monstrosity is the cause of all the homers?

Anyhow, it was a rough night - when Chien-Ming Wang only giving up six hits and two runs in three innings is considered progess, that's not a good thing. And I expect a loss today, because it's a pitcher - J.A. Happ - that the Yanks have never seen.

At least there was one great highlight of the night that literally had me cheering. Too bad it came in the Mets-Red Sox game. When Kevin Youkilis got hit by one of Johan Santana's pitches - it looked like an accident to me - Youk did his usual yippy "Don't you know I am" thing. Then Santana looked like he told Youkilis to go drink a nice steaming cup of "Shut the bleep up"! Good stuff. I've watched the clip three times already!

What did you think of last night's games? Leave us a comment!

Can Johan play shortstop?

The 2006 Mets rolled into Fenway and got swept, losing the three-game series by a combined score of 23-8.

The 2009 Mets staggered into Fenway and have already done better by taking the first game, 5-3, behind the great Johan Santana.

Squawker Lisa, I would also like to point out that the Mets have also done better this year in this department than the Yankees, currently 0-5 against the Sox. And the last time the Phillies came to New York, they were swept by the Mets.

I'm going to get all my gloating in now, because I expected the Mets to get swept this weekend and don't have high hopes on winning another game in Boston with this depleted crew.

Here's an idea for an exotic bet: Number of errors committed when Johan is pitching vs. number of new Met injuries. If you had errors, you won, 3-2. If Ramon Martinez is the best option the Mets have in their entire system to fill in at shortstop, I would hate to see the runners-up.

Along with Martinez' two errors, giving him four in three games, David Wright also committed his seventh error. So the strong side of the infield is now Luis Castillo and Daniel Murphy. Fortunately, the Mets have a lot of fly-ball pitchers.

As for the injuries, Carlos Beltran's knee forced him to DH and Ryan Church came out of the game with a sore hamstring. Church could be day-to-day, which means the Mets could be playing two men down with Jose Reyes already unavailable.

At least Jerry Manuel will be limited in his pinch-hitting hunches, such as Omir Santos for Ramon Castro. But the Mets' indecision on whether or not to put someone like Reyes on the DL leaves them shorthanded way too often. Or do they stall on calling people up because there's so little to choose from in Omar's farm system?

Especially on a night like this, I'm glad the Mets have packaged prospects for the likes of Johan Santana. And they've got some talented 17-year-olds at the lower levels. But surely Omar should be able to replenish the likes of Anderson Hernandez and Ruben Gotay.

But not if it means trading Bobby Parnell, who got up to 100 mph tonight.

I'm still dubious about Gary Sheffield batting cleanup, but he did get things going tonight with a homer over the Green Monster.

Sheffield now has better stats than a fixture in the middle of Boston's order - David Ortiz, who has one homer and a .205 battting average compared to Sheffield's three homers (in half the AB) and an average of .257.

In 1986, the Mets staggered into Boston down 2-0 and turned things around in the World Series by beating the Red Sox in Game 3. The stakes were much lower tonight, but a turnaround was needed just as badly, and Johan and the Mets came through.

Yankee fan must root for Mets and against Phillies

It shouldn't exactly be a surprise that I'm rooting for the Mets over the Red Sox this weekend. Talk about a no-brainer! I didn't even root for the Red Sox in the 1986 World Series. So why would I cheer for the Red Sox over the Mets just because the Mets are our crosstown rivals? It makes no sense.

Anyhow, it's weird that Squawker Jon and I are on the same side for once, with me cheering for the Mets, and him rooting for the Yankees. It just seems all so strange for Jon and I to cheer for the same teams, though. My blogging partner is the guy who has rooted for USC, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and even TCU's Horned Frogs just because all those teams faced my Texas Longhorns in college football.

So my rooting decision is much easier for me than it is for him. Squawker reader Uncle Mike aside, most Yankee fans don't hate the Mets the way the Met fans despise the Yankees. They just don't.

Meanwhle, way too many Met fans, including my partner in Squawking, root for the Red Sox just because of their rivalry with Yankees. It's that whole Little Brother Syndrome thing. You'd never see Bomber fans expending the psychic energy to root for the Phillies and the Braves, just because they're against the Mets.

In 2004, it was ridiculous how many Met fans called up WFAN to celebrate the ALCS. What were the Mets fans cheering about? Their team finished 71-91 that year!

Anyhow, I will make my predictions for this weekend in a moment, but I just want to say a few word's about last night's ninth victory in a row. I was at dinner for most of the game, so while I did get to see Joba Chamberlain get knocked out of the game - literally, I missed much of the rest of it. Kudos to Alfredo Aceves for stepping in and pitching so well in Joba's place.

Incidentally, is Adam Jones the Yankee-killer or what? Johnny Damon hurt his back Wednesday night going after Jones' home run ball? And now Jones hits Joba in the knee. I guess the Orioles have their new Kevin Millar!

Nine in a row is impressive, but the Yanks face a big test of the year so far with their three games against the team to beat this weekend, the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Here's how I think the games will go:

Friday: Brett Myers vs. A.J. Burnett. I know A.J. hasn't won in over a month, and his ERA is terrible, but he's really pitched better than his numbers indicate. I think the power of the pie will work in his favor tonight, with him being the victim of a pieing when he's talking to Kim Jones tonight. Edge: Yankees.

Saturday: J.A. Happ vs. Andy Pettitte. I think this is a game the Yankees will lose, for two reasons. While Burnett is better than his numbers indicate, Pettitte has pitched worse than his overall numbers (4-1 with a 4.18 ERA) indicate. And when Andy gets hit, he gets hit hard. Throw in J.A. Happ, a starter the Yankees have never seen, and you have the recipe for a Yankees loss. Edge: Phillies

Sunday: Cole Hamels vs. CC Sabathia. Battle of the aces. I think this game will be a pitcher's duel, but I give the edge to Sabathia. Just a hunch. Edge: Yankees

As for the Mets/Red Sox series at Fenway Park, here are my predictions:

Friday: Johan Santana vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is a great matchup, and something I would watch if there weren't a Yankees-Phillies game on at the same time. Dice-K is making his first start since coming off the DL. I give Santana the edge, but the Mets need to score some runs for him for a change. Edge: Mets

Saturday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Josh Beckett. Surpisingly, Pelfrey's having a slightly better year than Beckett. Pelfrey is 4-1, with a 4.61 ERA, while Beckett is 4-2, 5.85. This is a tossup for me, though. I could see either team winning. Edge: Neither

Sunday: Tim Redding vs. Tim Wakefield. I still remember Redding's disastrous outing in Fenway Park with the 2005 Yankees (the game where Trot Nixon hit an inside-the-park home run after Melky Cabrera messed up the play.) The Yanks ended up losing that game, 17-1. Because of that game, I give the edge to Tim Wakefield in this battle of the Tims. Edge: Red Sox

But what do our readers think? What are your predictions and rooting interests for this weekend? Tell us about it!

Tim Redding: Mercy Mercy Me!

On Thursday night, Tim Redding improved his ERA from his first appearance of the spring.

That's the best spin I have.

Yes, giving up nine runs in two innings is statistically better than the five runs Redding allowed in only 1/3 of an inning against the University of Michigan.

On the telecast, Ralph Kiner suggested that the mercy rule used in the WBC should also be used with Redding. Maybe during the regular season, when Redding gets knocked out of the game, the sound system can play the old Marvin Gaye classic "Mercy Mercy Me."

And when Redding trudges back to the bench, Jerry Manuel and Dan Warthen can ask Redding "What's Going On."

The Mets price their games in tiers ranging from "platinum" down to "value." If this keeps up, they may need to introduce a new tier: "Redding." Tickets are reduced in price in most of the ballpark in anticipate of a lousy showing by the Mets. However, tickets for seats in the outfield in fair territory are sold at a higher price, since your chances of catching a home run ball look to be much greater with Redding on the mound.

A couple of times during the telecast, Ron Darling said that Redding had an "outstanding" season last year because he won 10 games for a Nationals team that only won 59.

In 1972, Steve Carlton won 27 games for a Phillies team that also won only 59 times. Now that's outstanding. Winning 10 for the Nationals? Not so much.

But it doesn't look like we'll have to worry about hearing "Tim Redding" and "outstanding" in the same sentence again anytime soon.

Johan Santana wasn't outstanding tonight either, but it was great to see him on the mound making most batters miss after the injury scare. Santana even pitched into the third after it looked like he would only go two. Santana did get taken out in the middle of an inning, but it was due to being on a pitch count - not a mercy rule.

Who should be the fifth starter for the Mets? Would you like to see the Mets bring back Pedro Martinez? Tell us what you think.

Mets could learn from Yankees on injury news

A-Rod is going under the knife, but at least the Yankees have an idea of when to expect him back and what to expect during the season. Johan Santana is said to be fine, no longer needs an MRI, and Opening Day is again a possibility for him. Obviously, the news is much better on Santana than on A-Rod as of now. But as far as future medical news on both players is concerned, at this point, I'm more inclined to trust the Yankees than the Mets.

Whatever else you can say about A-Rod, he hasn't tried to blame the Yankees for not realizing that the hip irregularity they saw on an MRI last year was actually something more serious. And the Yankees haven't tried to blame A-Rod's steroid use for his injury. The two sides have worked together to come up with what seems like a good compromise - lesser surgery that gets A-Rod back by May and leaves him healthy enough to play well for the rest of the season, leaving the more serious surgery for the offseason.

Even if A-Rod does not come back as quickly as hoped, or is not as productive as expected once he does come back, fans and media are unlikely to blame A-Rod or the Yankees for misleading them, since no one can say for certain how the surgery will turn out.

As for the Mets, when Johan Santana's elbow troubles surfaced, player and coach had different stories. Then, after saying the Santana had to go to New York for an MRI, as if there were no MRI machines in Florida - one is even advertised at Tradition Field! - the Mets canceled the trip because they said it was no longer necessary.

But fans and media who had been burned last year when injuries to Ryan Church, Billy Wagner and even Angel Pagan were originally underreported, wondered if the trip was really canceled only because it was snowing in New York.

When the trend of underreporting injuries is combined with finger-pointing, it's easy to conclude that there's something to hide. And that someone is not telling the whole truth.

Fortunately, the finger-pointing has died down as the Santana elbow story is (we hope) dying down as well.

Maybe the Mets need to get one of their doctors in front of the media sooner when these situations come up. Getting the story from A-Rod's hip surgeon makes the story a lot more credible than if it came from, say, one of A-Rod's relatives, much less A-Rod himself. And the doctor is a lot less likely to point fingers.

Trying not to think about Johan Santana

I don't want to write about Johan Santana. I don't want to think about Johan Santana. Because he can't be replaced.

And I don't want to hear rumors that the Mets can always try to get Roy Halladay at the trading deadline. First of all, as I've written before, why should we think the Mets will open up the pursestrings at the trading deadline when they wouldn't sign Orlando Hudson or Bobby Abreu at bargain rates? Second, two months of Halladay won't make up for losing Santana for a much longer period. Third, as Was Watching points out, if Halladay becomes available, other teams will be interested as well, maybe even the Yankees.

Nobody is too concerned at this point about the battle for the fifth rotation spot since the other four are set. But imagine having to take two from Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez and Jon Niese. I would like to see Pedro Martinez pitch for the Mets again at some point for sentimental reasons. But imagine needing him to come back.

Injuries cost the Mets last year, particularly the ones to Billy Wagner and Ryan Church. But every team has injuries. Last year, the Mets' hitting core was completely healthy. In recent years, both Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran have missed time. But last year, Beltran, Delgado, David Wright and Jose Reyes each played in at least 159 games. It was only the seventh time in baseball history that a team had four such players.

Position players can miss long periods of time with injuries. Just as Angel Pagan. And injuries ended up ruining Church's season. But usually their injuries are not that severe. In Carlos Beltran's first three seasons with the Mets, he played in 151, 140 and 144 games before playing in 161 in 2008. You don't want to see Beltran missing 20 games, but if a pitcher gets hurt, you hope it's only two or three weeks.

In 2007, Chris Carpenter pitched Opening Day for the World Champion Cardinals against the Mets. Carpenter never pitched again that year and the Cardinal season was finished.

It was great to see spring training games start last week, but they are a lot less compelling when most of the stars are at the WBC and all that's left is to root for the prospects to do well so you have something to package in case - well, I still don't want to think about it.

If Johan Santana is seriously hurt, are you giving up on the season? Tell us what you think.