Sunday, August 24, 2008

Virginia President and Senate

Barack Obama 47
John McCain 45

Barack Obama has held a two point lead in all three of PPP's Virginia polls. He's not having as much of a problem here as he is in some other states with nailing down the Democratic vote- an 84-12 lead with voters in his own party is not too dissimilar from John McCain's 89-7. Independents are basically split with Obama leading 41-39.

Beyond that the race breaks down pretty much as you would expect. Obama leads by nine points with women while McCain leads by five points with men. Obama's up 57-34 with voters under 30, McCain's up 57-33 with those over 65. McCain has the 55-36 advantage with white voters but Obama gets 89% of black voters.

There are very few votes up for grabs in the state so this seems likely to be one state that goes right down to the wire with turnout operations playing a critical role in who tips the balance.

Full results here

Mark Warner 55
Jim Gilmore 32

Mark Warner continues to hold a dominant lead in the race to replace John Warner in the Senate. He leads with every demographic subgroup in the poll, and even holds Jim Gilmore below 70% with Republican voters in the survey.

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