Friday, May 25, 2007

Will Warburg Pincus Fight?

Now this will be interesting to watch.

The news that Advanced Medical Inc. is pondering a counteroffer to Warburg Pincus’ bid to acquire Bausch & Lomb adds a whole new wrinkle to this already intriguing deal. And it threatens to once again turn private equity investing into a public spectacle.

This isn’t how Warburg Pincus generally operates. The largest and most experienced big-money investor in health care (we mulled over including "arguably" but we don't think there is an argument), Warburg Pincus tends to move fairly quietly in the medical device sector.


The First Rule of Private Equity ...











Deals for companies like Wright Medical and Tornier happened quietly over a long span of time with Warburg Pincus’ principals spending a great deal of time coaxing the deals into existence. Or if an auction was established—as was the case with American Medical Systems—Warburg was usually the only significant bidder. (Each link will bring you to detailed In Vivo accounts of the deals, which demonstrate Warburg Pincus' doggedness to get a deal done.)

We don’t know what happened on the front end of the Bausch & Lomb deal. No doubt, Bess Weatherman, who heads the device group, moved with the same adroit skill demonstrated in the past. But Bausch & Lomb is a public company, so you're never going to get a deal done quietly.

But now Warburg Pincus may have a fight on its hands.

It’s important to note that Advanced Medical—while suggesting Warburg’s offer undervalues B&L—is only pondering a bid. There are legitimate questions as to whether the company can put together a cash-only offer to compete with Warburg’s.

But, as other reports state, they may not have to go it alone. No doubt, there are enough private equity groups out there that might be willing to team up with someone who knows the market like Advanced Medical management. As far as we see it, that’s the only way Advanced Medical will be able to put up a fight. (Read more this in our upcoming June issue of In Vivo.)

There’s no question Warburg Pincus can give the fight right back—and win. But at what cost? Warburg Pincus always has worked best out of the public spotlight, so it could opt to drop the deal and go back to finding the deals that no one else knows about. Or it might have already valued in this sort of struggle into its initial bid, which only offered a 5.7% premium over the May 15 closing price of Bausch & Lomb stock.

We'll guess that Warburg Pincus will see this one through and get the deal done. First, it can. Second, it may have to. With all the attention private equity is getting these days in newspapers, talk shows, Congress and (gasp) blogs, we wonder whether those days of the quietly closed deals are gone.

Slavery Apology -- in Alabama

I found this interesting: Alabama residents barely support a formal apology for slavery from the state.

Q: Do you think the state of Alabama should apologize for its role in slavery and the injustices of discrimination?

Yes 45%
No 44%

Source: University of South Alabama / The Press-Register
Methodology: Interviews with 400 Alabama adults, conducted in May 2007. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

Coca-Cola 600: Thursday photos from Dave Franks

Yesterday was another very bad day for Michael Waltrip.
During pole qualifying for the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte, two of his cars crashed hard (including his own). On the bright side, Dale Jarrett made the field in MWR's third car.
Thanks to Dave Franks for sending these along!

A Boon for Byetta?

As doctors, patients and regulators rush to make sense of the recent NEJM study showing an increased risk of heart attack among patients taking GSK's Avandia, it looks like good news for Lilly's Byetta.

The GLP-1 analog--or 'smart drug', as Lilly execs like to call it, since it stimulates insulin secretion in a glucose-dependent way, reducing the risk of hypoglycemia--has already done pretty well since its launch in June 2005. It suffered a brief blip in sales when Merck's DPP-IV inhibitor Januvia arrived (since Januvia, although less effective, comes in pill form and Byetta is a twice-daily injection) but has since recovered. Sales will be about $700 million this year.

And things can only get better. "Both Januvia and Byetta will benefit from Avandia's problems, and as physicians see that Januvia isn't that great, they'll move to Byetta," David Kliff, publisher of Diabetic Investor, told the IN VIVO Blog.

Januvia seems safe--so far--but doesn't actually work that well, as we explained in a previous issue of IN VIVO. Byetta, on the other hand, not only is extremely effective at controlling blood sugar (it prevents sugar lows plus, because of its effect on glucagon, sugar highs) but also helps diabetic patients lose weight.

And that, frankly, is just perfect, since many diabetics are overweight, and since insulins tend to exacerbate that problem. So rather than being stuck on insulin, getting fatter and with poorly controlled blood sugar levels (only about a third of insulin users actually control their blood sugar effectively), patients "start a cycle of success," enthuses Lilly's global brand development leader for Byetta, David Vondle. "They have more energy, start feeling better, so they take a walk, and that helps with weight loss...and they're just more optimistic," he says.

Lilly's GLP-1 team probably feels pretty happy, too (unlike their cousins in the insulin department, who blew it). Not only has first-to-market Byetta brought a huge improvement to patients' lives, but there's an even bigger paradigm-shift on the way: a once weekly Byetta. "Every doctor is salivating for Byetta LAR," says Kliff.

They'll have to salivate until 2010, but it may be worth the wait: patients will be able to take just one weekly injection, rather than twice daily. That's 13 fewer injections per week.

That's a selling point if ever there was one. And, as with Avandia, where there's a winner, there's a loser. In the GLP-1 space, it might just be Novo Nordisk's human GLP-1 analog, liraglutide. It's due out a year or so before Byetta LAR, but Novo's not always the timeliest, and liraglutide is a once-daily. Read more in the next issue of IN VIVO.

Castrol Canadian Touring Car Championship: Yorkville Media Event

On Thursday night, the Castrol Canadian Touring Car Championship held an event in Toronto's trendy Yorkville district.

Below is a photo gallery from the event.



Photos by Mike Galipeau / ITMN

NCATS: Jacombs Looks Forward to Season of Firsts

HAMILTON, ON - Dave Jacombs is looking at a new season and that season is one of firsts. The first year in twenty-nine seasons that he will not be behind the wheel of a race car, first season of being strictly a car owner and first race and first season in the new NASCAR Canadian Tire Series.

"I have had many great years of racing," said Dave Jacombs "and a lot of great memories to go along with those years," he added. "But I am really excited about my new role in racing as a team owner and fielding cars for former Champ Car driver Andrew Ranger. Alan Labrosse, President of Professional Sports Management and I have worked closely together for several months to put this deal together. Alan and I both have a lot of great people working with us and a lot of great partners involved in making this program a success. The Victory Lap Tour is a 100 Wal-Mart store tour that will primarily raises funds for the Children's Miracle Network and we are very proud to be part of that program."

Andrew Ranger will pilot the #27 Ford Taurus prepared by Jacombs Racing in all twelve NASCAR Canadian Tire Series events this year with primary sponsorship from Wal-mart and Proctor & Gambles, Tide brand.

After a successful two day test at Cayuga Speedway that saw Ranger posting times close or equivalent to seasoned veterans on the circuit, new crew chief Bill Burns was pleased with the overall results. Burns joins the Jacombs team as crew chief in 2007, while the remaining crew are all long time Jacombs team members.

The first event on the NASCAR Canadian Tire Series tour is slated for this Saturday May 26th at Cayuga Speedway Park, home track of the Jacombs Racing Team who hale from nearby Mount Hope, ON. The team will arrive at the track along with all their pit equipment on Saturday morning in their new to them, 53' transporter being towed by a tractor provided by Bryan Cathcart of Cathcart Trucking.

Grandstands open at 10 a.m. on Saturday, with practice for the NASCAR Canadian Tire Series teams starting at 11:30 a.m. Time trails are slated for 4:15 p.m., with Autograph Session from 6:00 to 7:00 p.m. The green flag will fly for this inaugural event, the Dodge Dealers 200 at 8:00 p.m. Cayuga Speedway Park is located just outside of Hamilton, ON.

For directions, a full schedule of events and ticket information please visit www.cayugaspeedwaypark.com For more information on Andrew Ranger please visit www.aranger.com For more information on Jacombs Racing please contact: Linda Jones (705) 458-4044Email: ljones@ljmmarketing.ca