Friday, June 5, 2009

A big problem for NC Republicans

A higher percentage of conservatives in North Carolina identify as Democrats than moderates do as Republicans. As long as that's the case it's going to be very hard for the GOP to turn around its recent losing streak at the polls in the state.

Over the course of all our North Carolina polling so far in 2009 55% of moderates have identified as Democrats, with 20% Republicans, and 25% independents.

Among conservatives 61% are Republicans, 26% are Democrats, and 13% are independents.

Democrats are doing a better job of appealing to voters on the right side of the spectrum than Republicans are doing of attracting folks in the middle. It's pretty hard for the GOP to construct an electoral majority as long as that's the case. Nevertheless Republicans in both Washington and Raleigh this year have seemed more fixated on pleasing the far right than pursuing an agenda that would better help them reach out to the 80% of moderates who currently don't identify with their party.

Among liberals it's no surprise that 87% are Democrats, 8% are independents, and 5% are Republicans.

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