You can add Michigan to the list of states that it looks like will have competitive Senate races in 2012. Only 43% of voters say they would vote to reelect Debbie Stabenow while 48% say they'd prefer her Republican opponent.
Stabenow's numbers aren't real surprising in this political climate. With voters as polarized as they are right now it's hard for any politician to get cross party support and that's reflected in only 3% of Republicans saying they would vote to reelect her. And independents are turning against most all incumbent officeholders, with 42% of them saying they'd vote to replace Stabenow compared to 37% who say they would support her again.
Stabenow will probably be running in a political climate that's much more favorable to her party than the current one, and it's possible these numbers represent somewhat of a low point for her in what's shaping up to be a strong Republican year in Michigan. Nevertheless it seems likely her second bid for reelection will be more competitive than her first one if the Republicans can get a first tier challenger.
One potential Stabenow foe who would certainly be viewed as first tier is not in very good standing with Michigan voters these days. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of former Governor John Engler while 49% see him in a negative light. Democrats dislike him (77%) more strongly than Republicans like him (60%) and independents also view him negatively by a 38/50 spread. Engler clearly has lost a great deal of popularity since his resounding reelection to a third term in 1998.
It's a long way until 2012 but if Republicans recruit a good candidate this will probably be an interesting race to watch.
Full results here
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